🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.